Debated and (at the risk of a non-expert opinion) Decided to Talk Briefly About the Uvalde Shooting
First, a simple disclaimer, I am NOT a gun expert. I was probably a teenager the last time I held a gun, so PLEASE feel free to point out mistakes/errors in my reasoning (because I’m sure that they are there). This is part of the “Tips to Being a Better Human” that I am working on. I am open to feedback (you’ll find I’m likely to offend both sides of the gun debate which says absolutely nothing about whether or not I’m correct) and I’m trying to “Care More About Getting To Correct Than Being Correct”.
Plus, for those paying attention, I lied. I said that this week was off, but didn’t want to miss the chance to add to the other 1001 pieces on gun safety this week. 🤣 Seriously, this is an important enough topic that one more piece can’t hurt and, if you’d like, feel free to skip it (really, feel free to hit the delete…no hard feelings). We’ll be back with a regular article soon.
What We Know — Part One
The Uvalde shooting was stopped by a “good guy with a gun”, but not all go down this way. The actual number of deaths of shooters is about 32% who killed themselves (likely as law enforcement was closing in), while less than 9% are killed by law enforcement (almost identical to the number that are unsolved). The other 51% are taken into custody by law enforcement (from 2009-2020)
Thirty-two percent of mass shooters, or 92 shooters, ended with the perpetrator dying by suicide, and another 24 shooters were killed by responding law enforcement. The remaining 145 mass shooters were taken into custody by law enforcement, while the outcomes and identities of 23 remain unknown.1
There have been more shootings in the last two years (and will be more to come). There also were shootings/killings well before 2009. This is not an exhaustive list.
First, let’s look at the possibility that a “good guy with a gun” will be successful. When you have people with extensive and regular training (which takes time and effort), it is far more likely2. However, what if they do not have recent, active gun training? Take a look at this video (sure, it’s comedy and it’s a few years old, but there’s a lot of good data in there).
At about 5:35 into the video, there’s a scene that shows Klepper getting shot under multiple scenarios. The reason is simple, he’s not trained.
Dr. J. Pete Blair, Executive Director of ALERRT adds some of the following commentary:
About one out of every five active shooters gets stopped by a person on the scene and many of those people are unarmed.
About 3% of shootings (again this is dated…it appears to be a little over 8% now) are stopped by “a good guy with a gun”.
At about 7:30 into the video, he goes for more active training. This time, two instructors (Coby Breihn and Aaron Vetter) explain that “there’s never enough training” and “it’s not so much a destination, it’s a journey.” So, he took another 4+ hours of training and…got destroyed some more.
He determined that “Being a good guy with a gun is starting to feel way more complicated than movies, video games, and politicians make it seem”.
In one telling comment, he says “That’s it. Being a good guy with a gun takes a lifetime of commitment to training.”
In other words, it is not your average NRA member holding up pictures of their assault rifles3.
It is heroic people that work hard at their craft (as in multiple hours per month) to develop the skills necessary to clear rooms, avoid shooting innocent people, take clear shots when the opportunity presents itself, and all the other necessary skills to do the job well. To those both heroic enough AND willing to put in the training time on a regular, continual basis, you deserve far more thanks than you get…so THANK YOU!! However, if you are not putting in the regular training (like 10+ hours per month…not just shooting targets), you are a guy with a gun (despite your best intentions) and more likely to cause harm than good.
What We Know — Part Two
Another big cry is that this is a mental illness issue. Which is obviously true as you don’t have sane people shooting up churches, schools, and grocery stores. However, we (we being the US for my global readers) need to acknowledge that mental illness is not one or two people in the US. Instead, we have over 1 in 5 adults (53 million) who suffer from mental illness!4 That is as of a certain point in time. Many people end up experiencing mental health challenges at different times in their lives so the number is likely larger. You know what else covers a little more than 30% of the US population? Gun ownership. According to the article, about 72 million people (give or take a few million on either side) profess to owning a gun and there are 330,000,000 million in the US.5 Neither are likely to just go away. I’m more than happy to see mental health encouraged and supported at the national level. That said, talking about improving mental health and following through on the push to increase mental health are not the same thing.
What We Know — Part Three
Ready to be depressed? Let’s say that we eliminated mass shootings today. WOW! That would save about 2000 people since 1999. Maybe 2100 if we extend to 2021. While that is a lot of people, we have lost about that many to the flu.
While relatively rare, some children die from flu each year. From the 2004-2005 season to the 2019-2020 season, flu-related deaths in children reported to CDC during regular flu seasons have ranged from 37 to 199 deaths.
and
During 2019-2020, for example, 199 deaths in children were reported to CDC but statistical modeling suggests approximately 434 deaths may have occurred.
Essentially mass shooting are awful and we should seek to reduce that number. However, unfortunately, there are a lot of awful things out there (including the flu, cancer, drownings, suicides, drug overdoses, etc. Specifically, here are the numbers. In 2018, there were 19,660 deaths among kids from 1-19. That means that there were about 10 times the deaths IN ONE YEAR than the number of people killed in mass shootings in the previous 20 years. Again, I’m not saying don’t worry about mass shootings (they create both physical AND mental problems), but that death is a crappy part of being alive.
Domestic violence is another problem. Of the mass shootings between 2009 and 2020.
In at least 53 percent of mass shootings between 2009 and 2020, the perpetrator shot a current or former intimate partner or family member during the rampage. These domestic violence-related mass shootings resulted in at least 632 people shot and killed and 106 people wounded, amounting to almost half of all mass shooting deaths and one in ten injuries.
and
Too often, children and teens are the victims of domestic violence mass shootings: Of the 362 children and teens killed in all mass shootings in the past 12 years, nearly three in four (72 percent) died in an incident connected to intimate partner or family violence.
The findings about domestic violence-related mass shootings and where mass shootings tend to occur are interlinked. Nearly all of these domestic violence-related shootings involved at least one victim in a private home (93 percent), and 80 percent of them occurred there entirely and never moved into a public space.
There are three important aspects to note here:
that domestic MASS shootings (ignoring one-on-one domestic violence) accounted for the deaths of 632 people…almost half of the people killed (including the huge shooting in Las Vegas in which 411 people were wounded by gunfire).
the second issue is that these incidents AND school shootings are often (not always) connected to people that know who they are killing. These appear random, but are rarely so.
the third issue is that domestic violence actually accounts for a higher percentage of children’s deaths than other forms of mass shootings.
In other words, domestic violence drives more death than traditional mass shootings!
What We Know — Part Four
Gun violence has little to do with mass shootings. Instead, it is basic homicide and suicide that account for the bulk of problems. If we remove the mass shootings of about 2000 people over several years (which again is much harder to do mentally as the images are both scary and draw lots of debate) the numbers are still a lot bigger for gun deaths.
In 2020, the most recent year for which complete data is available, 45,222 people died from gun-related injuries in the U.S., according to the CDC.
If we want to reduce gun violence, we probably need to focus on controlling more traditional gun issues. How do we reduce suicides (which accounted for 24,400 gun deaths in 2020) and homocides?
One solution is presented by David Epstein in his update on gun violence (as mentioned earlier, there’s no shortage of those over the last two weeks…but his is worth reading)
A common argument, though, is that if those people didn’t shoot themselves, they would have just found some other way.
Ample evidence (like this, and this) points to the contrary — that easy access to lethal means, like guns, increases the numbers of deaths by suicide overall. As Harvard School of Public Health professor David Hemenway put it:
“Studies show that most attempters act on impulse, in moments of panic or despair. Once the acute feelings ease, 90 percent do not go on to die by suicide.”
This reminded me of the study by Richard H. Seiden of the University of California at Berkeley, in which he followed up on 515 people who were planning to jump from the Golden Gate Bridge, but who were restrained and prevented at the last minute. Many years later, 94 percent of those people were either still alive, or had gone on to die of natural causes. A lot of suicidal behavior, Seiden wrote, “is crisis-oriented and acute in nature.”
Easy access to a gun greatly enhances the success of a suicide attempt. However, the vast majority of the data shows that this is far more likely to represent a temporary moment of crisis. If we could stop 10% of the suicides, we’ve saved more people in one year than we’ve seen killed in mass shootings in the last 20 years! Honestly, that is astonishing to me and something that might surprise quite a few people who see news reports of mass shootings (or maybe not). How many homicides could be eliminated by reducing the availability of guns? Maybe 5-10% (it won’t be a high number), but I’m guessing it is not a non-zero number.
Solutions (Maybe)
First, those that are liberal need to stop talking about appealing the second amendment. There are multiple reasons (home defense, hunting, sport shooting, and more) that people want to have access to a gun. Repealing the second amendment is not going to happen (and shouldn’t). Fortunately, most liberal politicians (not all) recognize this. The problem is that political tribalism is so strong that conservatives don’t trust their intentions…and there is no solution to political tribalism. Both sides get so caught up in fighting each other that they see compromise as defeat.
Age
One big problem is that we have people with guns and their brains are not fully developed. Consider driving. We are able to get a driver’s license in the state of Missouri at 16. However, driver fatality ratings don’t slow down until you are 24!
Among the youngest drivers (under 25), the number of licensed drivers steadily increases from age 16 to 24, while the overall crash rate per 100,000 drivers steadily decreases. The fatal crash rate remains relatively flat from age 16 to 22 and starts decreasing for 24-year-old drivers.
Why are young people more likely to get in car accidents than older people? Two reasons — one is that they have less experience, but brain formation also plays a big role. Our brains do not stop fully developing until they are 25 (it’s not as if the birthday is a magical date…instead, think of it as probably 22-27).
Some more data on age (as in under 18-year olds) from the Nationwide Childrens page:
Nearly 1,300 children younger than 18 years of age die from shootings every year.
1 in 3 families with children have at least one gun in the house. It is estimated that there are more than 22 million children living in homes with guns.
Most of the victims of unintentional shootings are boys. They are usually shot by a friend or relative, especially a brother.
Nearly 40% of all unintentional shooting deaths among children 11-14 years of age occur in the home of a friend.
Adolescents are at a higher risk for suicide when there is a gun in the home.
Some parents believe that hiding their guns will prevent children from accessing them. However, 75% of children who live in homes with guns know where they are stored.
Many parents think their children are not capable of firing a gun. However, children as young as 3 years old may be strong enough to pull the trigger of a handgun.
Parents believe their children know the difference between real guns and toy guns, but in 16% of unintentional firearm deaths among children younger than 13 years of age, the gun was mistaken for a toy.
Parents often believe their child would not touch a gun because “he knows better.” However, studies have found that most children will handle a gun if they find one, even if they have been taught not to.
Which makes one wonder why we can legally purchase firearms on our 18th birthday? Part of the reason is due to military participation and traditional entry to adulthood. However, maybe we should consider raising the age to 21. Is it perfect? No, but it is probably a better match to what we know about brain development.6
Follow the Restrictions in Place
How can we complain about stopping gun violence when we don’t even follow the rules?7 Granted, there are ample reasons why rules are not always followed. However, we should be making a bigger effort to be enforcing those that are in place while adding a few simple new ones.
Add New Regulations…and Enforce Them
There are probably a few reasonable gun regulations that we can add. These will NOT stop mass shootings (nothing will). The goal is not zero-one, life rarely works like that. Instead, the goal is to REDUCE mass shootings and, most importantly, reduce gun violence that does FAR more damage to society.
Universal Background Checks. This means that you face a complete background check on any gun purchase, regardless of whether it is at a commercial dealer or a private gun show (purchases at private gun shows are not required to perform a background check).
Domestic Violence. If someone has been convicted of a federal gun charge, they should not be allowed to own a gun. Seems simple enough (and is a federal law), but some states (such as Missouri) have chosen not to enforce it. Does this mean people with domestic violence charges will not own guns? Of course it doesn’t…clearly they aren’t law abiding citizens. However, it does mean that if they get caught with a gun, they ARE violating the law and can be dealt with accordingly, regardless of what else they are doing.
Magazine Size Restrictions — There are currently eleven states that have capacity limits on guns. I would think 10-15 rounds would be sufficient and would at least require a magazine switch.
Training — Having a brief training sessions (somewhere in the 2-4 hour range) every 5 years to be permitted to carry a firearm doesn’t seem unreasonable to me. Maybe a 6-hour session for all new gun owners (even if half the clientele already know about where their safety is) that goes through proper storage, basic gun safety, how to shoot, etc. seems reasonable. The idea is that gun safety requires a little bit of knowledge about the product. Sure, the gun user can find more information online in 15-30 minutes than they’ll get in a training session, but having people understand their weapons doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch. These could be offered by the gun seller or by other responsible parties.
Closing Arguments
Americans have recognized the importance of guns in many arenas ranging from home defense, personal defense, hunting, etc. Even though I don’t carry a gun, I have zero problems with these uses. That said, we need to recognize that someone armed with a gun is more dangerous than someone armed with a barb-wired wrapped bat.
The good news is that we are making progress. Your Local Epidemiologist has a great recent article that shows a lot of progress has been made since the Sandy Hook and Parkland shootings. Seriously, take a look at the article as she does a great job in writing it. One of the highlights is that “states with more restrictive laws have reduced the rate of mass shootings.” We can move the needle…and are doing so. It won’t be overnight, but it can be accomplished as long as we are addressing the right issues. If you want to see mental health improvements passed, I agree 100%. However, helping people have better mental health is not going to really move the needle (mainly because it is an entirely different issue). You’re not going to “harden” schools to the point that mass shootings go away (they aren’t all schools). Instead, focus on issues that make “the good guys with a gun” ACTUALLY BE “the good guys with a gun”. Training, universal background checks, smaller magazine sizes, improve age restrictions, etc. These are doable goals that will greatly enhance US gun safety if they are pursued over the next 10-20 years through active participation.
There have been 9 official “mass shootings” in 2021-22 according to Statista.com
The Uvalde incident ended when the suspect was killed by a member of the BORTAC security team.
Yes, I’m well aware that firearms dealers do not sell assault rifles to regular citizens which comes up in about every online gun debate. They are semi-assault rifles in that one shot is fired with each pull of the trigger…just like a semi-automatic handgun. This has absolutely nothing to do with the “christmas” photos in question.
This is according to the National Institute of Mental Health for 2020 which finds 52.9 million people in the US. (https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/mental-illness). There are also some that are below 18 as well.
For those who want to quibble, you can rapidly see that there’s a big difference between 53 million and 72 million, but it has to do with one reporting on adults (mental health) and the other reporting on all US citizens (which should also be all adults). It’s probably closer to 30-35% of the adult population who owns a gun. Also, hold on to your hats, these are both approximations.
Yes, you could argue that age 25 would be more appropriate (and maybe for military service as well), but at some point you have to become an adult. Eighteen may be too young, but let’s target 21 and see if that accomplishes anything first. Maybe it will not.
One thing that I always found strange in college was that we (a) had relatively strict rules on course sequencing and (b) often enforced those rules pretty loosely in order to make sure students graduated on time.